＂peak-shifting economics＂ on National Day： this young people choose to ＂leave later＂
This article Source: Consumer Report Author: Hu Wenjing
The travel script of "charging at the beginning and returning at the end" during the National Day Golden Week is being rewritten by young people.
This year’s smart young people found that there was a "low price" and "high experience" hidden in the holiday-not only did the prices of air tickets and hotels plummet, but also popular attractions were less crowded, so they used the "peak-shifting" strategy to re-plan their travel time.
This is not a simple "delay", but a set of "National Day peak-shifting economics" about how to use time to replace space and cost performance.
Trade annual leave for a cost-effective trip.
Using three-day annual leave to complete a "precise escape" from the Golden Week is a holiday plan planned by Guangzhou consumer wangyi (pseudonym) for the National Day in 2025.
Her tourist destination is Bangkok, Thailand, leaving on October 5 and returning on October 12. "Depart late, and then take three days off to return late, which can save a lot of money." Wangyi told the reporter of Consumer Reports that the peak prices of both air tickets and hotels have fallen off a cliff.
The price data confirmed her judgment. The reporter of "Consumer Report" searched the air tickets through the OTA platform and found that the lowest fare of the air ticket from Guangzhou to Bangkok on October 1 was 1929 yuan, while the lowest fare on October 5 was only 431 yuan, and the difference was nearly 1500 yuan.
So is the return ticket. If you return at the end of the National Day holiday (that is, October 8), the lowest fare for direct flights from Bangkok to Guangzhou is 1709 yuan, while the lowest fare on October 12 is 941 yuan, with a difference of 768 yuan; Roughly speaking, wangyi and her friends can save nearly 5,000 yuan on air tickets alone, which is enough for another high-quality trip in Bangkok.
Low-cost calendar of "Guangzhou-Bangkok" and "Bangkok-Guangzhou" flights
(Inquiry date: early morning of September 29th and September 30th)
In fact, as early as July when booking air tickets, wangyi experienced a psychological game with price fluctuations. When buying air tickets, the platform’s "only a few tickets left" prompt and the price comparison suddenly jumped up in 200 yuan, which made her realize that off-peak travel is not only a cost-effective choice, but also a technical activity that needs to be laid out in advance.
While most people are still crowded in the crowd and paying high bills, "time planners" like wangyi are exchanging accurate calculations for a more leisurely travel experience.
Coincidentally, Xie Yang (pseudonym) also chose to use "time arbitrage" in exchange for a cost-effective trip. She arranged her two-day annual leave after the National Day holiday, and planned to leave for Nha Trang and Daat in Vietnam on October 3 and return on October 11. The ticket price is an important reason for her decision to leave late. "Hotel prices are not much different, but the air ticket on October 3 is much cheaper than the previous two days." Xie Yang said.
Her journey is completely outlined by the price curve: she originally planned to go to Sri Lanka, but she gave up decisively because the ticket price suddenly doubled. "When I want to buy it, I found that the price has increased, and I don’t want to buy it in an instant." In Xie Yang’s travel decision, the weight of each factor from high to low is: visa-free or visa-convenient, the fare is close to the people, the route is friendly, and the destination has never been there. After two weeks of price comparison and screening, Vietnam finally became the destination of her trip.
While most people are still hesitating about the sky-high air tickets for popular destinations, "price-sensitive travelers" like Xie Yang are no longer obsessed with "places that must be visited", but where it is cost-effective. During the golden week when all the people gathered together, they redefined the holiday experience with the strategy of peak shifting through accurate "time arbitrage" in exchange for their own high-quality travel.
Economics of off-peak travel
The fluctuation of air ticket price during the National Day holiday is like a vivid economics course. On September 29th, the reporter of Consumer Report searched through OTA platform and found that on October 1st, the lowest fare from Beijing to Urumqi was 1,130 yuan, while on October 5th, the lowest fare on the same route only needed 380 yuan, and the difference reached 750 yuan.
The similar price difference is also obvious on the route from Guangzhou to Seoul. The lowest fare on October 1 was 1,521 yuan, but it dropped to 623 yuan on October 3.
Low-cost calendar of "Beijing-Urumqi" and "Guangzhou-Seoul" flights
Flying pig said that under the spell holiday strategy of "please take 3 holidays and 12 holidays" before and after the holiday, off-peak travel and transit "string tour" have become a good choice for this year’s National Day holiday. For example, the air ticket from Shenzhen to Fuzhou on October 3 was nearly cheaper than that on October 1 and October 2, near 600 yuan; On September 26th, the ticket price of Beijing connecting Qingdao to Chengdu is less than that of direct flight to Chengdu, and you can spend two days in the connecting city of Qingdao.
The fluctuation of air ticket price often brings decision-making anxiety to users. To this end, Meituan Platform has launched an AI price comparison tool to help users predict price trends.
On September 29th, the reporter of Consumer Report inquired through the platform of Meituan that the lowest price for direct flights from Guangzhou to Xi ‘an on October 1st was 1,071 yuan. The information provided by Meituan AI price comparison function shows that the price is 504 yuan cheaper than that in the past 7 days. On October 1st, the lowest direct flight fare from Zhengzhou to Guangzhou was 393 yuan, which was 205 yuan lower than that in the past 7 days. Tickets from popular cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xi ‘an and Kunming to Guangzhou have also been reduced to varying degrees.
Meituan AI price comparison function
According to industry insiders, the airline will dynamically adjust the ticket price according to the real-time sales and inventory of the ticket. According to the experience of previous years, it is normal for some routes to reduce prices before the festival. However, in the week before this year’s festival, although the air ticket price during the National Day period declined, it was still higher than the same period of last year. For consumers, it is more difficult to "miss" this year, and the wrong peak travel can choose a more cost-effective air ticket.
Staggered peaks are becoming the mainstream choice.
On this National Day, the peak shift has changed from the "unique skill" of a few people to the consensus of most people.
The relevant person in charge of Qunar said in an interview with the reporter of Consumer Report that from the perspective of traveler flow, it began to enter the peak of National Day travel on September 29, and October 1 was the peak of passenger flow before the holiday. Where to go data shows that more people choose "please take 3 breaks and 12 holidays" for holiday travel, and the peak of travel will last until October 12. Three days after the festival (October 9-October 11), the booking volume of popular destinations for outbound travel nearly doubled compared with last year.
Where to go big data shows that "going late and coming back late" is the "saving money cheats" for the 11 th holiday this year. From October 2 nd to October 5 th, the low-cost air tickets from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to many popular cities in China are below 500 yuan; For outbound travel, there are more than 400 yuan in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, more than 2,000 yuan in Stockholm and more than 3,000 yuan in London. On the return trip, the air ticket after October 10 is generally half cheaper than that on October 8.
Judging from the crowd structure, young people are the main force of the "Eleventh" outing. According to the travel data of the US Mission, among the people who booked the National Day travel in 2025, young tourists accounted for 62% after 00. In an interview with Consumer Report, the relevant person in charge of Meituan Travel said, "Among the’ Eleventh’ travelers, young people travel together on a large scale with many increments, and the behavior of’ spelling fake’ is also more common among young people; Parent-child travel has also increased, and silver-haired people choose to travel at the wrong peak after October 8. "
According to the travel data of Meituan, as of September 27th, between "early vacation" (September 27th-October 8th) and "extended holiday" (October 1st-October 12th), more consumers chose to extend their holidays later, and the travel enthusiasm from October 9th to October 12th was significantly higher than that of the same period last year.
In an interview with Consumer Report, Qunar Big Data Research Institute analyzed that migrant workers who "fake" travel are no longer satisfied with a cursory punch-in tour, but prefer to have an in-depth experience in a country. High cost performance is also an important determinant of traveling now. Cross-peak travel not only has obvious price advantages, but also can avoid crowds for in-depth experience, which is a new choice for many young consumers and silver-haired consumers. However, the mainstream family tourists are limited by their children’s school time, and they still choose to travel in winter and summer vacations and public holidays.