The film market is in two worlds： the box office exploded to a record, and the investment broke down and fell to the bottom.

Original Zhai Yuanyuan Tech Planet

Tech planet (wechat id: tech 618)

Wen | Zhai Yuanyuan

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Summer movies in 2023 continue to bring surprises.

First, the suspense crime type movie "Disappeared She" led the box office all the way, exceeding 3.5 billion. Then, the word-of-mouth of "In the octagonal cage" and "Chang ‘an Three Wan Li" continued to ferment, ranking among the top three in the summer box office list. "Feng Shen" has been grinding a sword for ten years and has high hopes.

In August, at the end of the summer file, the market ushered in a dark horse movie. "Put all your eggs in one basket" was officially released for five days, and the box office reached 1.292 billion yuan. The box office forecast of Lighthouse Professional Edition shows that the final box office of "Put All Your Eggs" is expected to surpass "Disappeared She" to reach 4 billion yuan.

If "Put all your eggs in one basket" finally reaches 4 billion yuan, the summer box office in 2023 will break the box office record in 2019 before the epidemic. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of press time, the total domestic box office of summer file in 2023 exceeded 15.774 billion yuan. In the summer box office over the years, the summer box office in 2019 was the highest, reaching 17.778 billion yuan. The summer box office in 2018 was 17.377 billion yuan, and the summer box office in 2017 was 16.357 billion yuan.

Summer movie is one of the most important movie markets in the whole year. In 2022, the annual movie box office was 30.067 billion. If the summer movie box office can reach 18.5 billion this year, it means that it has contributed half of the annual box office. In the past, many explosive movies came from summer files, such as Wolf Warriors 2 in Ne Zha and Dying to Survive.

The explosive summer file has injected a shot in the arm into the whole movie market. A number of filmmakers told Tech Planet that the film market is gradually picking up and film investment is expected to bottom out next year.

Summer movies are a hit.

This year’s summer movie killing is extremely tragic.

Many high-quality movies compete for the summer box office champion. After the release of "Disappeared She" produced by Chen Sicheng, the box office went down many times, leading all the way, winning the summer box office champion temporarily with 3.5 billion box office, and "Put All Your Eggs" came from behind, breaking the box office record on the opening day of summer drama films in the past five years with a dark horse gesture, and threatening to hit the box office champion position.

With its epic blockbuster and sincere "giant system", "Feng Shen Part I" has been praised by many people in the industry as "the highest industrial benchmark of China films". With a high score of 8.3 douban and a box office of 1.693 billion yuan, "Three Wan Li in Chang ‘an" became the second place in the history of domestic animation box office, which not only set a new box office record for the company’s light-chasing animation behind the film, but also broadened a new boundary for China animation films.

This is a summer file with a higher discussion than the Spring Festival movie, and domestic movies firmly occupy the top three at the box office. In the past, overseas blockbusters were regarded as the guarantee of summer box office, and there were overseas blockbusters in the top three films. Spider-Man: Heroic Expedition and Transformers 5: The Last Knight all occupied a place in the top three box office before the epidemic.

This year, the top three summer movies are all made in China, namely, Disappeared She, In an Octagonal Cage, Feng Shen Part I.. The box office of overseas movies was slightly depressed. Mission Impossible 7 was released for 30 days, and the box office was only 343 million yuan. Transformers was released for 65 days, with a box office of 654 million yuan.

The popularity and popularity of movies attract many people to enter the cinema. Many viewers told Tech Planet that the first movie they went to the cinema this year was either "Three Wan Li in Chang ‘an", "Goddess of God Part I" or "Put all your eggs in one basket". Even if I didn’t go to the cinema to watch movies, most of them brushed the movie announcement clips on the video platform.

Market demand is picking up. According to the data of Cat’s Eye Professional Edition, the total number of people watching "She Disappeared" is as high as 84.692 million. During the two days from August 5th to August 6th, driven by films such as "Put All Your Eggs", "Feng Shen Part I" and "Megalodon 2: The Abyss", the box office was 503 million yuan and 516 million yuan respectively, and more than 12 million tickets were issued every day, setting a single-day record for the summer file since 2020.

The rising popularity of movies has doubled the confidence of many people in the industry. Film critic Jun Wei told Tech Planet that this year’s summer movies are really rare. Except for the comedy "The Super Family", all the other movies are excellent. "The Super Family" was once ranked first in the summer file to see the index.

In his view, the biggest surprise of this year’s summer movie is "The First Part of Gods", which has opened up the genre of China movies, the genre of local mythical blockbusters, and reached the highest industrial benchmark that China’s film industry can reach at present. "It has a great impact on the industrial value and future of China films, and this surprise may be even greater. We have to wait for time. When the latter two films are released, a whole trilogy of deities can take China films as far as possible."

Producer Xu Pengpeng told Tech Planet that this year’s summer movie Chang ‘an Three Wan Li made her feel very surprised. She believes that Chang ‘an Three Wan Li has achieved good results in both commercial and social benefits. There are many commercial elements in a movie, but the "positive energy" element is usually not defined as a kind of commercial element. However, Three Wan Li in Chang ‘an tells a touching story through the "positive energy" element, and has achieved super high commercial returns.

Some people are happy, others are sad.

The high demand for watching movies has made the producers and producers behind some movies earn a lot of money.

The biggest winner at the moment is naturally the current box office champion "Disappeared She". Although "Disappeared She" has a lot of market controversy, its box office success is also undeniable.

The producers or co-producers behind "Disappeared She", including 16 companies including Beijing Yitong Legend Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Taobao Film, will participate in the investment, and 16 companies will share the box office feast together. Among them, Yitong Legend is Chen Sicheng Company. According to the data of Cat’s Eye Professional Edition, the account of this piece was 41.28%, reaching 1.324 billion.

Producer Guo Chen revealed to Tech Planet that according to industry practice, the total cost of "She Disappeared" is about 300 million. Excluding the cost, the film earned at least 1 billion.

Wang Baoqiang directed and participated in "In the Octagonal Cage". At present, the film can be divided into 813 million yuan. According to the public information, there are four main producers of "octagonal cage", three of which are Wang Baoqiang’s own companies. There are almost no star actors in the film, so the cost should not be very high, or lower than "Disappeared She".

The animated film "Three Wan Li in Chang ‘an", according to the current cat’s eye data, the amount of the film’s account is 636 million. According to industry insiders, the production cost of the film is about 150 million yuan.

The same low-cost production but good box office results are also the dark horse "Put All Your Eggs". An industry insider told Tech Planet that the cost of the film is about 50 million. The film was not optimistic before it was released. However, after the release of "put all your eggs in one basket", it has made great strides, and it is even expected to break the record of 4 billion. If "put all your eggs in one basket" finally reaches 4 billion at the box office, the profit of the film may exceed 1.5 billion.

The cinema is also one of the sharers of the box office feast. The proportion of cinemas’ box office is 55.12%. If there are more than 18 billion summer movies this year, cinemas are expected to get nearly 10 billion.

However, some people are happy and others are sad. The box office or word-of-mouth of films such as Enthusiasm, The Super Family, and The Gods Part I did not meet expectations.

At present, the box office return rate is relatively low, but it is the movie giant "Feng Shen I" with a large investment. A film practitioner told Tech Planet that although "Feng Shen" was very popular in the market, its time period was long and the time cost paid by the team was relatively high. From the perspective of return on investment, it was not a particularly worthwhile commercial project. "Blindly pursuing feelings, cultural values and social values while ignoring commercial values is actually an escape from commercial returns."

It is rumored in the industry that the production cost of the trilogy "Feng Shen" is as high as 2.4 billion, with an average cost of 800 million and an announcement cost of 600 million. The cost of a single film is as high as 1 billion. Cat’s eye data shows that the current box office amount of the film is 719 million.

Of course, it is not objective to measure the value of a film with a single box office dimension. Guo Chen, the producer of the film Under the Yellow Wall, believes that from the perspective of value investment, Feng Shen is profitable. In his view, "Feng Shen" and The Wandering Earth have greatly improved the production technology of China film industry. From a commercial point of view, we should not only look at the box office of a film, but also look at the cultural tourism market derived from it. Shooting scenes, sales of cultural tourism derivatives, reuse value of scenes and special effects, similar to the export value of Marvel Universe or Disney culture. The superposition of implicit value and explicit value can reflect the commercial value of a film.

Film investment is broken, and it may bottom out in 2025.

During the summer vacation, the depressed movie market ushered in a rare dawn.

Different from the continuous release of movie viewing demand, this year’s film investment market is still in the cold winter. Guo Chen, the producer of the film Under the Yellow Wall, told Tech Planet that this year’s film investment market is even more difficult than during the epidemic, and it is almost at the bottom. It is more difficult for the project to find funds. In the past, it was 2-3 million yuan, and the difficulty coefficient was not great. Now, it is "just kneeling on the ground".

Film and television projects are a business that sells expected income. Guo Chen said that the expected income in the market is unstable, so it is naturally difficult to find money to invest in movies. In the past, it earned 1 billion box office, almost every month. Out of every 100 movies, about 20 movies can make money. This year, one or two movies may make money. As the probability becomes smaller, investors’ concerns will increase. There used to be 100-120 employers in 100 projects, but now there are only 10 employers in 100 projects.

The crisis has caused the film production to be halved this year. Guo Chen said that all those who dare to start this year are "warriors", and the projects that can start this year are almost at the top of the industry pyramid.

As a film producer, Xu Pengpeng also witnessed a passive reshuffle of the film market.

Xu Pengpeng told Tech Planet that the threshold of the film and television industry is relatively low. In the past few years, there was a lot of hot money in the market. No matter which industry, as long as there is money, everyone is willing to come out and vote for movies. Usually, many people will grab a movie share. With the influx of hot money, the denominator of the film industry has become larger and the number of films has increased. However, on the other side of the coin, the industry has become mixed and the quality is uneven.

The epidemic has accelerated the elimination of the industry. In the past, film investors, producers, production companies and producers who were not so professional began to leave actively or passively. Many employees who worked on a project in the past one or two years have now changed careers. Xu Pengpeng said that those who still stick to the film industry must be those who really love it.

The logic of film investment has completely changed. Xu Pengpeng said that compared with other industries, an explosive film in the past had a very high rate of return and a high chance of success. It was easy for the Mid-Autumn Festival or summer file to break through the box office of 2 billion and 3 billion.

But it’s not the same now. Investors become more calm, will analyze the success or failure factors of movies more professionally, consider the diversification of themes, and begin to pay attention to social values. I won’t invest in a film because of a star starring or a certain theme IP as before. At present, the investment decision is based on the control of the project cycle, project risk assessment, where to shoot, how to implement it, the expected schedule, the statistics of movies in the same period, the attendance rate of each city, the target audience, marketing positions, etc. The data needs to be analyzed particularly accurately before deciding whether to invest.

However, for the film industry, caution and wait-and-see are a filter for the healthy growth of the industry. Xu Pengpeng believes that the industry is ultimately regulated by the market, and it is normal for the market economy to fluctuate. The fact that the film industry is at a low point does not mean that it is killed by a stick. On the contrary, many bubble teams can be screened out and irrational denominator investments can be made during the low point.

It is expected to bottom out in 2025. Guo Chen said that this year’s film and television practitioners are very difficult, but they are in danger. The film projects that can be started and finished this year mean that the film quality is excellent, and the market competition in 2024 is relatively less fierce.

There is a synergy between the recovery of the film industry and the big economic situation, which may be slightly lagging behind. Xu Pengpeng said that although there are not many film investment projects at present, she is still very optimistic about the future. She predicted that 2024 will be an upward trend.

Original title: "The movie market is full of ice and fire: the box office burst into a record, and the investment broke into the bottom."

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