The latest financial data of the central bank is released! The agency said that it needs mortgage to continue to cut interest rates to stabilize financing demand.
China Business Daily (Reporter Wang Tongxu)The financial data released by the central bank in March recently showed that the stock of social financing scale at the end of March was 390.32 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year. The balance of broad money (M2) was 304.8 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans was 247.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. In the first quarter of this year, the scale of social financing increased by 12.93 trillion yuan, 1.61 trillion yuan less than the same period of last year.
Haitong Securities Research Report said that on the whole, the growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.7%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped to 8.3%, which needs further repair. Judging from the financing breakdown in March, the issuance of government bonds still needs to be accelerated; Corporate financing needs to be boosted; Residents’ loans have turned into positive growth, and it is necessary to continue to cut interest rates on mortgages to stabilize financing demand.
In Pingqing Village, Wenchang Street, Dongkou County, Shaoyang City, Hunan Province, bank staff used the mobile credit system to handle farmers’ credit loans for villagers. (Image courtesy of CNSPHOTO)
Direct financing has improved significantly.
In March this year, China’s new social financing was 4.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 514.2 billion yuan. At the end of March, the stock of social financing scale in China was 390.32 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year. In terms of growth rate, it was 0.3 percentage points lower than 9% at the end of February.
According to China Bank Securities, although the social financing increased slightly year-on-year, there were bright spots in the structure, and off-balance-sheet financing and direct financing improved significantly. The year-on-year decrease in social financing was mainly due to the decrease in RMB loans and government bond financing. However, the upward speed of trust loans and corporate bond financing accelerated, and the undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased year-on-year. In the case of weak traditional on-balance-sheet loans, some funds are coming out of the balance sheet, and direct financing is gradually increasing, while government bond financing is slowly affected by the issuance rhythm.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the net financing of government bonds in March was 464.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 137.3 billion yuan, and the issuance pace was relatively slow. Corporate bond financing increased by 125.1 billion yuan to 460.8 billion yuan year-on-year under the seasonal effect and the sharp decline in bond market interest rates, which boosted social integration. With the accumulation of favorable factors such as the steady expansion of credit, the issuance of special government bonds and the acceleration of local debt issuance, the growth rate of social financing is expected to gradually rise, and March may be the low point of the year.
Continuous optimization of credit structure
The data shows that at the end of March, the balance of RMB loans in China was 247.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The stock of social financing scale was 390.32 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year; The broad money balance was 304.8 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year.
Although compared with the same period of last year, new loans in the first quarter of this year increased by more than 1 trillion yuan less, it is still the second highest level in the same period of history. The industry believes that this is mainly affected by factors such as the high base in the same period last year and the balanced credit supply of financial institutions.
Specifically, RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter. By sector, household loans increased by 1.33 trillion yuan. Among them, short-term loans increased by 356.8 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 975 billion yuan. Judging from the monthly data in March, RMB loans increased by 3.09 trillion yuan.
Everbright Securities previously predicted that after the Spring Festival holiday, the effective demand for credit will be repaired slowly, and the operating efficiency of existing loans will be improved under the arrangement of "revitalizing the stock", and the credit supply intensity in March will be weaker than that in the same period last year.
Data show that in the first quarter, corporate loans increased by 7.77 trillion yuan, accounting for over 80% of all new loans.
"In the first quarter of this year, the proportion of bank credit to new credit in the whole year generally converged significantly compared with the same period last year." Lian Ping, chairman of the Forum of China’s Chief Economists, said that this year, the People’s Bank of China demanded a more balanced credit supply. In fact, it extended the loans that were excessively high in the previous quarter to the following month to provide stable and balanced credit support for the real economy.
Experts said that under the incentive of structural monetary policy tools, the credit structure of commercial banks will further accelerate adjustment and optimization. At the same time, direct financing, which is more suitable for the development of new kinetic energy such as scientific and technological innovation, needs to be accelerated to promote a more balanced development of the bond and credit markets.
Fiscal policy will be further strengthened.
The macro Li Chao team of Zheshang believes that the first quarter is often prone to excessive credit supply. At present, with the effect of the credit smoothing policy appearing, it is expected that the credit will increase in most months from the second quarter to the end of this year, which will support the credit, social financing and M2 data. In the future, the issuance and use of government bonds will also strengthen the social financing and M2 data respectively. It is expected that the two will fluctuate and rebound in the second half of this year to achieve "matching" with economic fundamentals.
Haitong Securities believes that government bond financing may accelerate in the second quarter, which will help to stimulate supporting financing such as infrastructure; There may also be marginal improvement in manufacturing investment and financing. On the one hand, the central bank has launched 500 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation refinancing, and the investment related to equipment renewal is expected to accelerate; On the other hand, the short-term export performance is still resilient, and the profits of industrial enterprises are also increasing continuously year-on-year, supporting the performance of manufacturing industry. However, the pressure of the real estate industry is still going on, and it needs active policy care.
Looking forward to the next stage of policy measures, Wen Bin said that the proactive fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened, and the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds and local bonds will be accelerated, which will form a strong support for the growth rate of social integration; Steady monetary policy is accurate and effective, and there is still room for lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates. With the support of structural monetary policy tools, the "five big articles" and reasonable consumption financing needs will be more targeted; Vigorously promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action plan, smooth production and consumption, promote investment and steady growth.
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